The following analysis combines the Q4 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (released December 11, 2025) with December 2025 market data from the Northern Nevada Regional MLS. National forecasts reflect economist consensus and do not guarantee local market performance. All local statistics sourced from NNRMLS data updated January 4, 2026.

If you've been watching the Northern Nevada housing market and wondering what 2026 might bring, you're not alone. Sellers are asking whether prices will hold. Buyers are asking whether waiting makes sense. And everyone wants to know: what do the experts actually think?

The answer arrived in December when Fannie Mae released its Q4 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey—a quarterly poll of over 100 housing economists, academics, and industry researchers. Their consensus: home prices will continue rising through 2030, with cumulative appreciation of more than 20% over the next five years.

That national outlook matters for Reno, Sparks, and the surrounding Northern Nevada communities. But so does what's happening right here, right now. December's market data tells a story of strong buyer activity, tightening inventory, and prices that continue to climb in key markets—even during the traditional holiday slowdown.

Let's break down what the economists are forecasting, what December's numbers actually show, and what it means for your next move.

What 100+ Economists Predict for Home Prices Through 2030

The Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey, conducted in partnership with Pulsenomics, polls economists from major institutions including Moody's Analytics, Redfin, First Trust Advisors, Clemson University, Tufts University, and the University of Alabama. The Q4 2025 survey, released December 11, 2025, collected forecasts from these experts on where home prices are headed.

Here's what they project for median annual home price growth:

2025: 2.70% 2026: 2.40% 2027: 2.82% 2028: 3.22% 2029: 3.49% 2030: 3.71%

The cumulative five-year appreciation? 20.22% from 2025 through 2030.

That's not a prediction of another pandemic-era boom. It's a forecast of steady, sustainable growth—the kind that builds wealth over time without the volatility that made the 2020-2022 market so unpredictable.

Of the survey respondents displayed in the results, only three forecast a cumulative price decrease through 2030. The overwhelming consensus points upward.

Why Economists Expect Continued Appreciation

Several factors drive this outlook:

Persistent inventory constraints. Despite rising construction activity, the U.S. housing market remains undersupplied relative to household formation and demographic demand. This structural shortage supports prices even as affordability challenges persist.

Wage growth outpacing home prices. Redfin economists Chen Zhao and Daryl Fairweather have called 2026 the beginning of a "Great Housing Reset"—not a crash, but a gradual period where incomes rise faster than home prices for the first time since the Great Recession era. This improved affordability is expected to bring more buyers into the market.

Mortgage rate stabilization. Most forecasts see 30-year fixed rates averaging in the low 6% range through 2026. While not the sub-4% rates of 2020-2021, this stability allows buyers and sellers to plan with more confidence.

Demographics. Baby boomers transitioning into retirement, millennials entering peak homebuying years, and continued migration patterns all support sustained housing demand.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the survey panelists, told ResiClub that he expects home prices to rise roughly in line with inflation over the coming decade. His forecast: nominal U.S. home prices increasing approximately 23.5% between December 2025 and December 2035. "Affordability has to be restored for housing to regain its mojo," Zandi said. "Flat home prices adjusted for inflation is the healthiest path forward—it's the only way for incomes to catch up."

December 2025: What Northern Nevada's Numbers Actually Show

National forecasts provide context. Local data drives decisions.

Here's what December 2025 delivered across Northern Nevada:

Reno

• Median Sales Price: $687,923 (up 4.2% from November, up 6.7% year-over-year)
• Active Inventory: 498 homes (down 22.1% from November)
• Closed Sales: 246 (up 28.1% from November)
• Median Days to Contract: 44
• List Price Received: 98.3%
• Months Supply: 2.0

Sparks

• Median Sales Price: $520,975 (down 4.4% from November, down 5.1% year-over-year)
• Active Inventory: 184 homes (down 18.9% from November)
• Closed Sales: 130 (up 19.3% from November)
• Median Days to Contract: 36
• List Price Received: 98.7%
• Months Supply: 1.4

Carson City

• Median Sales Price: $480,750 (down 8.9% from November, down 11.8% year-over-year)
• Active Inventory: 75 homes (down 16.7% from November)
• Closed Sales: 36 (down 25.0% from November)
• Median Days to Contract: 21
• List Price Received: 98.5%
• Months Supply: 2.1

Fernley

• Median Sales Price: $405,000 (up 4.1% from November, up 5.2% year-over-year)
• Active Inventory: 59 homes (down 21.3% from November)
• Closed Sales: 41 (up 78.3% from November)
• Median Days to Contract: 34
• List Price Received: 98.7%
• Months Supply: 1.4

Minden-Gardnerville

• Median Sales Price: $674,000 (down 6.4% from November, up 15.7% year-over-year)
• Active Inventory: 126 homes (down 16.0% from November)
• Closed Sales: 48 (down 2.0% from November)
• Median Days to Contract: 47
• List Price Received: 97.2%
• Months Supply: 2.6

Data provided by NNRMLS, updated January 4, 2026

What the December Data Reveals

Buyers didn't wait for spring. Reno's closed sales jumped 28.1% month-over-month. Sparks saw a 19.3% increase. Fernley's sales surged 78.3%. Even during the holidays, motivated buyers acted.

Inventory tightened sharply. Active listings dropped 22.1% in Reno, 18.9% in Sparks, 21.3% in Fernley. Sellers who list now face significantly less competition than they did just one month ago.

Prices held or climbed in most markets. Reno's median hit $687,923—up 6.7% year-over-year. Fernley reached $405,000—up 5.2% year-over-year. Minden-Gardnerville's median of $674,000 represents a 15.7% year-over-year gain.

Homes are selling near asking price. List price received ratios range from 97.2% in Minden-Gardnerville to 98.7% in Sparks and Fernley. Sellers pricing strategically are achieving their goals.

Days to contract vary by market. Carson City homes are going under contract in just 21 days. Sparks averages 36 days. Reno sits at 44 days. Minden-Gardnerville averages 47 days. Market position and pricing drive these variations.

What This Means for Northern Nevada Sellers

If economists are right about 20%+ cumulative appreciation through 2030, the question isn't whether to sell—it's whether waiting serves your goals.

Consider the math. A Reno home valued at $687,000 today could be worth approximately $825,000 by 2030 if it appreciates in line with the Fannie Mae consensus forecast. That's $138,000 in potential equity growth.

But here's the nuance: that appreciation isn't guaranteed, and it isn't free. Holding costs matter. Property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and opportunity costs accumulate. If your current home no longer fits your life—wrong size, wrong location, wrong layout—waiting for more appreciation means paying for a home that doesn't work for you.

December's data offers a strategic window. Inventory is down sharply. Buyers are active. Competition among sellers is at seasonal lows. Homes priced and presented well are moving.

For sellers in Damonte Ranch, Caughlin Ranch, Somersett, Northwest Reno, or Spanish Springs, the combination of tight inventory and strong buyer demand creates favorable conditions. The 98%+ list-to-sale ratios indicate that strategic pricing delivers results.

What This Means for Northern Nevada Buyers

The economist consensus creates a clear calculation: if home prices rise 20% over five years, waiting costs you 4% annually in appreciation alone—before factoring in rent payments that build no equity.

Redfin's Chen Zhao frames it this way: "We're now moving into a world where the market is going to be resetting back to pre-pandemic levels of affordability. And that is not super affordable by any means. We're still dealing with a housing shortage in this country, but it will be a bit of a relief compared to what people have experienced these last few years."

That gradual improvement matters—but it doesn't mean prices will drop. It means the gap between income growth and price growth will narrow. Homes will become relatively more affordable without becoming absolutely cheaper.

For buyers relocating from California, the calculation remains compelling. A Bay Area home selling for $1.2 million generates equity that purchases in Reno with a substantial down payment. A $400,000 down payment on a $650,000 Reno home means borrowing just $250,000. At 6.5%, that's a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $1,580—likely less than what you'd pay in rent for comparable space.

December's tighter inventory means fewer choices but also less competition per listing. Sparks' 1.4 months of supply and Fernley's 1.4 months represent tight conditions where prepared buyers hold advantages.

The Northern Nevada Advantage

National forecasts don't capture what makes this market different.

California migration continues. Over 50,000 Californians relocate to Nevada annually, and Reno-Sparks captures a significant share of that flow. These buyers arrive with substantial equity, strong purchasing power, and motivation to act.

Employment diversification strengthens. Tesla's Gigafactory, the tech sector, healthcare expansion, and logistics growth provide economic support that many housing markets lack. EDAWN (Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada) continues reporting job creation across multiple sectors.

Relative affordability persists. Reno's $687,923 median feels expensive compared to five years ago. Compared to San Jose ($1.5M+), San Francisco ($1.2M+), or Los Angeles ($900K+), it represents value—especially for remote workers maintaining California incomes.

Lifestyle factors compound. Access to Lake Tahoe, four-season recreation, no state income tax, and improving infrastructure attract buyers who prioritize quality of life alongside financial considerations.

These local advantages don't guarantee that Reno-Sparks will outperform the national forecast. They do suggest that demand drivers remain intact and that the market has structural support beyond interest rates and national trends.

Strategic Considerations for 2026

Whether you're planning to sell, buy, or both, December's data and the economist forecasts suggest several strategic approaches:

For sellers considering a spring listing: January and February preparation positions your home for March-May peak activity. The buyers who closed in December during the holidays demonstrated motivation. Spring will bring more of them—along with more competing listings. Early preparation gives you first-mover advantage.

For sellers testing the market: December's 98%+ list-to-sale ratios indicate that strategic pricing works. Homes that linger often started with aspirational pricing rather than market-based pricing. A comprehensive market analysis before listing prevents the price reduction cycle that costs sellers time and money.

For buyers waiting for rates to drop: Most forecasts see rates remaining in the low 6% range through 2026. Waiting for 5% rates may mean waiting indefinitely—while prices continue appreciating. The math favors action with a refinance strategy over indefinite waiting.

For buyers relocating from out of state: December and January offer less competition than spring. California relocators often research during the holidays and act in Q1. Being prepared with pre-approval and clear criteria accelerates your timeline when the right property appears.

For homeowners unsure whether to move: The Fannie Mae data suggests your home will likely be worth more in five years than it is today. But so will the home you're moving to. If life circumstances call for a change—growing family, job relocation, downsizing, lifestyle shift—waiting rarely makes the transition easier or cheaper.

The Bottom Line

One hundred economists surveyed by Fannie Mae expect home prices to rise more than 20% cumulatively through 2030. December's Northern Nevada data shows strong buyer activity, tightening inventory, and prices holding firm in most markets.

None of this guarantees your specific outcome. Real estate decisions depend on your timeline, your financial situation, your life circumstances, and your goals. National forecasts and local data inform the decision—they don't make it for you.

What the data does suggest: the market isn't waiting. Buyers acted in December despite the holidays. Inventory declined sharply. Prices in Reno, Fernley, and Minden-Gardnerville posted year-over-year gains.

If 2026 is the year you've been considering a move, the economist consensus and local market conditions both point toward the same conclusion: preparation matters, timing matters, and informed action outperforms indefinite waiting.

Ready to discuss what these numbers mean for your specific situation? Contact Kevin Kinney at 775-391-8402 or Robin Renwick at 775-813-1255 for a no-pressure conversation about your goals, your timeline, and your options. Whether you're selling in Somersett, buying in Spanish Springs, or exploring what your Damonte Ranch home might be worth, we're here to provide the data and guidance you need to make a confident decision.

FAQs (8 Questions)

What does the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey predict for 2026? The Q4 2025 survey of over 100 economists forecasts median home price appreciation of 2.4% in 2026. Cumulative five-year appreciation from 2025-2030 is projected at 20.22%. Only three of the displayed respondents predicted cumulative price declines through 2030.

How did the Reno housing market perform in December 2025? Reno's median sales price reached $687,923, up 6.7% year-over-year. Closed sales jumped 28.1% from November to 246 transactions. Active inventory dropped 22.1% to just 498 homes. Median days to contract held at 44, with sellers receiving 98.3% of list price.

Is Sparks more affordable than Reno? Yes. Sparks' December 2025 median sales price of $520,975 is approximately $167,000 lower than Reno's $687,923 median. Sparks also shows faster transaction times with 36 median days to contract compared to Reno's 44 days.

What's happening with home inventory in Northern Nevada? Inventory tightened significantly across all markets in December. Reno dropped 22.1% to 498 active listings. Sparks fell 18.9% to 184 homes. Fernley declined 21.3% to 59 listings. This reduced competition benefits sellers considering a winter or early spring listing.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying in Reno-Sparks? Most economists forecast rates remaining in the low 6% range through 2026. If the Fannie Mae consensus is correct about 20%+ appreciation through 2030, waiting for lower rates could cost more in price appreciation than you'd save on interest. Many buyers are choosing to purchase now with plans to refinance if rates decline.

How does California equity help buyers in the Reno market? California relocators often arrive with substantial equity from higher-priced markets. A $400,000 down payment on a $650,000 Reno home means borrowing just $250,000. At 6.5%, that's approximately $1,580 monthly for principal and interest—often less than comparable rent.

What areas of Northern Nevada are seeing the strongest price growth? Minden-Gardnerville posted the strongest year-over-year gain at 15.7%, reaching a $674,000 median. Reno gained 6.7% year-over-year to $687,923. Fernley rose 5.2% to $405,000. Sparks and Carson City showed year-over-year declines of 5.1% and 11.8% respectively.

Is now a good time to sell my Northern Nevada home? December's data suggests favorable conditions for sellers: inventory is down sharply, buyer activity remains strong, and homes priced strategically are achieving 98%+ of asking price. With economists forecasting continued appreciation, the question isn't whether prices will rise—it's whether your current home serves your goals while you wait.